Contest Edge — Changelog

Last 40 changes, live from the repo. ← back to ledger

DateCommitChange
2026-08-02df2886bhome: add /changelog page (live from git history) + nav link
2026-08-0289e5403tennis: demote to calibration-only — trading trial closed, no edge found
2026-07-30ebfbe5dtennis_backtest: gate the CI/proof on NET-of-fee returns, not gross
2026-07-30f555938tennis edge: write a proof-status each run + homepage banner that flags it
2026-07-291e683ebhome: show each lane's DIP trust light on the scorecard
2026-07-29b4d917chome: show lanes inline — calibration scorecard, not just nav links
2026-07-29f78a6aahome: add lane nav so the board isn't "MLB only"
2026-07-27ddad871export_dip: give DIP the tennis EDGE bets as their own market to gate
2026-07-27c44e81dtennis_backtest: confirm-or-kill the edge with a 95% CI, not a point estimate
2026-07-272d92a7ahealthcheck: downgrade weather bookless-locks FAIL to WARN (investigated)
2026-07-27f4d0ec3tennis audit: fix inflated edge, faked underdog quote, unverified freeze
2026-07-27fde5be2tennis_depth: is the +EV tennis model-edge actually fillable? (the weather test)
2026-07-27267b909triggers: price-aware "would-it-have-made-money" line — accuracy isn't edge
2026-07-261dcf6b8depth_reality: measure phantom liquidity — did displayed depth actually trade?
2026-07-267131d8cmetar: independent IEM fallback so a NOAA API outage can't blind the watcher
2026-07-26757725emonitor_stations: watch the US ASOS/METAR settlement instrument for degradation
2026-07-2663382eclock-quality: gate reliability on the station's own bias, not nationality
2026-07-263e1e61cweather-trigger: lock-quality classifier (adverse-selection + thin-data guard)
2026-07-25beea281export_dip: supply the trigger's tradeability + reconciliation signals to DIP
2026-07-245142957export_dip: referee the trigger on DIP's own ledger, not pushed history
2026-07-245768bf7export_dip: feed DIP the weather-trigger lock scorecard as its own domain
2026-07-24781e89fweather-trigger: AT_RISK confidence flag for thin locks
2026-07-2486a3d42weather-trigger: clamp 6hr-max group to the local day (fixes high-read bias)
2026-07-2493c2bebweather-trigger #4: EOD reconciliation — measure the METAR-vs-settlement gap
2026-07-238642b34weather-trigger: resolution accuracy + honest lag/fills
2026-07-225bfad63Weather trigger v1: rules-parsed stations, edge-dollars, lag logging — deployed
2026-07-229f1fedaWeather: guard to highest-temperature markets only
2026-07-226919d47Fix watcher blindness: 36h endDate lookback (weather endDate=noon quirk) + single-degree bucket parse
2026-07-22e14f340weather-watch: read-only near-resolution lag logger (METAR vs bucket prices)
2026-07-222c796e5Weather: forecast the RESOLUTION STATIONS, not city gridpoints
2026-07-229875023Weather model v2: GFS ensemble distribution + fitted station bias + Vegas parse fix
2026-07-227c4e42elanes grading: random batches so resolvable rows always get sampled
2026-07-22fa8763dFix lane grading (closed=true on settled markets) + freeze only with market or at T-90
2026-07-21506bd4eDIP feed: slugs as event_key, side=over, WNBA+weather model-vs-venue pairs
2026-07-21fb5c749Four experimental lanes under one generic ledger: WNBA (Elo), Weather (Open-Meteo), UFC + soccer (mirror)
2026-07-212d06141DIP feed per green-light spec: crypto off the live board, tennis as two-source join
2026-07-21e6037eaTennis Glicko-2 lane: ratings engine, backfill, freeze/grade job, model on /tennis + DIP
2026-07-21f1c0332DIP board: tennis first, baseball off the live view (ledger keeps grading)
2026-07-2195f92daTennis lane: /tennis page + /api/tennis with fair-priced combo slips; tennis in DIP feed
2026-07-212efa36aCombo builder: fair-priced MLB parlays with crowd-overlap for Combo Cup play

Full history: GitHub.