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Tennis trading trial: CLOSED (2026-08-01) — no harvestable edge. Three tests (clean live bets, a 15k-match sharp-market backtest, Brier vs market) all came back negative, so tennis is now calibration-only like every other lane. On clean data the edge went 375/793 with a net -0.6%/bet (95% CI [-9.8%, +8.6%]). Always paper; no real money ever placed.
Model Brier: 0.24179 · Market Brier: 0.24202 · 815 graded predictions
Calibrated probabilities, frozen before first pitch, graded in public. Probabilities, never picks. Market benchmark: Polymarket.
| Start (UTC) | Game | Model P(home) | Market @ freeze | Polymarket now | Frozen at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 01:38 | MIN @ LAA | 0.495 | 0.475 | 0.065 | 09-17 00:00 |
| 09-19 01:40 | MIA @ SD | 0.594 | 0.645 | 0.960 | 09-17 00:00 |
| 09-19 01:40 | NYY @ AZ | 0.497 | 0.460 | 0.034 | 09-17 00:00 |
| 09-19 02:15 | SF @ LAD | 0.660 | 0.745 | 0.555 | 09-17 00:00 |
| 09-19 18:10 | DET @ CWS | 0.527 | 0.535 | 0.545 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 20:05 | MIL @ BAL | 0.450 | 0.475 | 0.455 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 20:10 | BOS @ TB | 0.559 | 0.515 | 0.545 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 20:10 | PHI @ NYM | 0.473 | 0.535 | 0.535 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 22:10 | ATH @ CLE | 0.624 | 0.615 | 0.635 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 22:40 | CHC @ CIN | 0.482 | 0.455 | 0.445 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 22:40 | KC @ PIT | 0.566 | 0.540 | 0.525 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 23:05 | TOR @ TEX | 0.523 | 0.545 | 0.485 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 23:10 | ATL @ HOU | 0.510 | 0.530 | 0.515 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-19 23:15 | WSH @ STL | 0.573 | 0.535 | 0.545 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-20 00:10 | SEA @ COL | 0.435 | 0.465 | 0.435 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-20 00:10 | NYY @ AZ | 0.494 | 0.455 | 0.435 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-20 00:40 | MIA @ SD | 0.595 | 0.585 | 0.585 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-20 01:10 | SF @ LAD | 0.660 | 0.655 | 0.735 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-20 01:38 | MIN @ LAA | 0.493 | 0.535 | 0.505 | 09-18 00:00 |
| 09-20 17:10 | PHI @ NYM | 0.468 | 0.415 | 0.425 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 17:35 | KC @ PIT | 0.568 | 0.530 | 0.530 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 17:40 | CHC @ CIN | 0.482 | 0.455 | 0.455 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 17:40 | ATH @ CLE | 0.624 | 0.635 | 0.635 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 17:40 | BOS @ TB | 0.556 | 0.545 | 0.545 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 18:10 | ATL @ HOU | 0.513 | 0.535 | 0.535 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 18:10 | DET @ CWS | 0.533 | 0.525 | 0.525 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 18:15 | WSH @ STL | 0.573 | 0.555 | 0.555 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 18:35 | TOR @ TEX | 0.520 | 0.545 | 0.545 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 19:10 | SEA @ COL | 0.435 | 0.455 | 0.455 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 20:07 | MIN @ LAA | 0.499 | 0.455 | 0.475 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 20:10 | SF @ LAD | 0.660 | 0.705 | 0.705 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 20:10 | MIA @ SD | 0.595 | 0.565 | 0.565 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 20:10 | NYY @ AZ | 0.494 | 0.500 | 0.490 | 09-19 00:00 |
| 09-20 23:20 | MIL @ BAL | 0.450 | 0.375 | 0.375 | 09-19 00:00 |
64362 graded · model Brier 0.1621 vs Polymarket 0.1568 · model closer on 27589/64362 · paper: 956 trades, 407 wins, $+1358.23 (asks ≥ 0.10; $+5420.13 incl. legacy penny fills)
Up windows (31836): model 0.1609 vs PM 0.1572 · Down windows (32526): model 0.1633 vs PM 0.1564
| Sym | Window | Spot lead | Model P(Up) | PM P(Up) | Result | Closer | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1785941700 | +0.113% | 0.850 | 0.645 | pending | — | |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1785941700 | +0.139% | 0.850 | 0.665 | pending | — | |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1785941700 | +0.163% | 0.885 | 0.795 | pending | — | |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1785941700 | +0.207% | 0.985 | 0.935 | pending | — | |
| SOL | sol-updown-15m-1785941100 | +0.258% | 0.971 | 0.950 | pending | — | |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1789788900 | +0.062% | 0.792 | 0.285 | pending | — | |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1789788900 | -0.010% | 0.448 | 0.285 | pending | — | |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1789788900 | +0.021% | 0.569 | 0.500 | pending | — | |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1789788900 | +0.003% | 0.535 | 0.505 | pending | — | |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1789788600 | -0.035% | 0.355 | 0.535 | Down | model | — |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1789788600 | -0.028% | 0.427 | 0.505 | Up | polymarket | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1789788600 | +0.011% | 0.592 | 0.645 | Down | model | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1789788600 | +0.015% | 0.566 | 0.525 | Down | polymarket | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1789788300 | -0.019% | 0.416 | 0.225 | Down | polymarket | — |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1789788300 | -0.062% | 0.268 | 0.145 | Down | polymarket | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1789788300 | -0.001% | 0.490 | 0.595 | Down | model | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-15m-1789787700 | -0.116% | 0.007 | 0.085 | Down | model | — |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1789788300 | -0.014% | 0.465 | 0.405 | Down | polymarket | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-15m-1789787700 | -0.124% | 0.080 | 0.030 | Down | polymarket | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1789788000 | +0.037% | 0.780 | 0.435 | Down | polymarket | — |
Paper trades fire only when |model − market| ≥ 0.10 AND the model's edge still clears 0.10 against the actual order-book ask — the price a real buy would pay. $100 hypothetical stake each. Zero real orders.
calibration scorecard — lower Brier is better; "closer" is who the market agrees with less often. Full detail on each lane's page.
| Lane | Frozen | Graded | Model Brier | Market Brier | Closer | DIP light |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| soccer | 214441 | 202738 | — | — | — | — |
| weather | 29198 | 27727 | 0.1393 | 0.1029 | market | — |
| tennis | 3595 | 3447 | 0.2271 | 0.2095 | market | — |
| wnba | 3535 | 3293 | 0.2268 | 0.2250 | market | ● red |
| ufc | 1936 | 1365 | — | — | — | — |
These lanes freeze and grade in the same append-only ledger as MLB. The DIP light is the independent referee's verdict — green only when a lane's edge clears breakeven at the pessimistic bound; everything is red until proven ("—" = no DIP market for that lane). All lanes are calibration-only — none beats the market enough to trade. Tennis was trialled for trading and closed 2026-08-01 after three tests found no harvestable edge (see /tennis).
| Start (UTC) | Game | Score | Model P(home) | Winner | Brier | Market Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 00:15 | WSH @ STL | 9-1 | 0.570 | away | 0.3250 | 0.2550 |
| 09-19 00:10 | SEA @ COL | 5-4 | 0.442 | away | 0.1951 | 0.1980 |
| 09-19 00:10 | ATL @ HOU | 6-2 | 0.511 | away | 0.2610 | 0.2162 |
| 09-19 00:05 | TOR @ TEX | 1-7 | 0.520 | home | 0.2304 | 0.2916 |
| 09-18 23:40 | DET @ CWS | 11-8 | 0.527 | away | 0.2778 | 0.2704 |
| 09-18 23:15 | PHI @ NYM | 3-6 | 0.479 | home | 0.2716 | 0.2652 |
| 09-18 23:10 | ATH @ CLE | 3-5 | 0.620 | home | 0.1446 | 0.1640 |
| 09-18 23:10 | BOS @ TB | 4-2 | 0.552 | away | 0.3048 | 0.2862 |
| 09-18 23:05 | MIL @ BAL | 6-5 | 0.446 | away | 0.1987 | 0.1806 |
| 09-18 22:40 | CHC @ CIN | 4-6 | 0.484 | home | 0.2666 | 0.2916 |
| 09-18 22:40 | KC @ PIT | 5-8 | 0.569 | home | 0.1860 | 0.1640 |
| 09-18 01:38 | MIN @ LAA | 4-5 | 0.493 | home | 0.2569 | 0.2652 |
| 09-18 00:05 | BOS @ TEX | 4-3 | 0.486 | away | 0.2366 | 0.2328 |
| 09-17 23:40 | DET @ CWS | 1-3 | 0.533 | home | 0.2182 | 0.1980 |
| 09-17 23:15 | KC @ HOU | 2-6 | 0.580 | home | 0.1768 | 0.2075 |
| 09-17 23:15 | PHI @ NYM | 3-0 | 0.479 | away | 0.2293 | 0.2970 |
| 09-17 19:10 | SD @ COL | 9-2 | 0.377 | away | 0.1424 | 0.1604 |
| 09-17 17:10 | ATH @ TB | 1-10 | 0.657 | home | 0.1173 | 0.0903 |
| 09-17 16:40 | LAD @ CIN | 8-2 | 0.453 | away | 0.2055 | 0.1560 |
| 09-17 16:35 | MIL @ PIT | 4-7 | 0.451 | home | 0.3018 | 0.3119 |
| 09-17 01:40 | MIA @ AZ | 4-3 | 0.572 | away | 0.3273 | 0.2970 |
| 09-17 01:38 | SEA @ LAA | 7-2 | 0.462 | away | 0.2130 | 0.2256 |
| 09-17 00:40 | SD @ COL | 9-3 | 0.382 | away | 0.1456 | 0.1332 |
| 09-17 00:10 | KC @ HOU | 5-2 | 0.580 | away | 0.3358 | 0.2970 |
| 09-17 00:05 | BOS @ TEX | 3-7 | 0.486 | home | 0.2638 | 0.2116 |
| 09-16 23:40 | ATL @ CHC | 4-8 | 0.541 | home | 0.2102 | 0.2401 |
| 09-16 23:10 | BAL @ NYM | 7-1 | 0.548 | away | 0.3007 | 0.2970 |
| 09-16 22:45 | PHI @ WSH | 3-0 | 0.441 | away | 0.1948 | 0.2070 |
| 09-16 22:40 | LAD @ CIN | 2-6 | 0.459 | home | 0.2932 | 0.3660 |
| 09-16 22:40 | ATH @ TB | 3-4 | 0.657 | home | 0.1173 | 0.1056 |
| 09-16 22:40 | MIL @ PIT | 5-4 | 0.451 | away | 0.2030 | 0.1980 |
| 09-16 19:07 | DET @ TOR | 1-5 | 0.580 | home | 0.1762 | 0.2256 |
| 09-16 17:40 | NYY @ MIN | 4-5 | 0.444 | home | 0.3094 | 0.3481 |
| 09-16 17:15 | SF @ STL | 6-5 | 0.582 | away | 0.3387 | 0.3080 |
| 09-16 17:10 | CWS @ CLE | 3-6 | 0.577 | home | 0.1791 | 0.1892 |
| 09-16 01:40 | MIA @ AZ | 4-2 | 0.572 | away | 0.3273 | 0.2970 |
| 09-16 01:38 | SEA @ LAA | 1-2 | 0.459 | home | 0.2932 | 0.2970 |
| 09-16 00:40 | SD @ COL | 3-9 | 0.384 | home | 0.3795 | 0.2970 |
| 09-16 00:10 | KC @ HOU | 2-4 | 0.577 | home | 0.1787 | 0.1806 |
| 09-16 00:05 | BOS @ TEX | 2-4 | 0.489 | home | 0.2615 | 0.2500 |
| 09-15 23:45 | SF @ STL | 10-3 | 0.579 | away | 0.3357 | 0.3306 |
| 09-15 23:40 | ATL @ CHC | 6-3 | 0.541 | away | 0.2932 | 0.2916 |
| 09-15 23:40 | NYY @ MIN | 8-1 | 0.444 | away | 0.1970 | 0.1640 |
| 09-15 23:10 | BAL @ NYM | 7-5 | 0.548 | away | 0.3007 | 0.2862 |
| 09-15 23:07 | DET @ TOR | 10-1 | 0.580 | away | 0.3366 | 0.2916 |
| 09-15 22:45 | PHI @ WSH | 3-6 | 0.441 | home | 0.3120 | 0.3540 |
| 09-15 22:40 | LAD @ CIN | 4-0 | 0.459 | away | 0.2102 | 0.1260 |
| 09-15 22:40 | ATH @ TB | 1-2 | 0.660 | home | 0.1155 | 0.1122 |
| 09-15 22:40 | CWS @ CLE | 6-7 | 0.577 | home | 0.1791 | 0.2256 |
| 09-15 22:40 | MIL @ PIT | 5-1 | 0.451 | away | 0.2030 | 0.1681 |
| 09-15 01:40 | MIA @ AZ | 7-8 | 0.582 | home | 0.1751 | 0.1806 |
| 09-15 01:38 | SEA @ LAA | 4-6 | 0.464 | home | 0.2876 | 0.2450 |
| 09-15 00:40 | SD @ COL | 8-7 | 0.386 | away | 0.1490 | 0.1482 |
| 09-14 23:45 | SF @ STL | 1-2 | 0.580 | home | 0.1764 | 0.2116 |
| 09-14 23:40 | ATL @ CHC | 3-7 | 0.544 | home | 0.2075 | 0.2070 |
| 09-14 23:40 | NYY @ MIN | 8-3 | 0.449 | away | 0.2015 | 0.2116 |
| 09-14 23:10 | BAL @ NYM | 2-1 | 0.548 | away | 0.3005 | 0.2970 |
| 09-14 23:07 | DET @ TOR | 6-5 | 0.580 | away | 0.3362 | 0.2862 |
| 09-14 22:40 | LAD @ CIN | 4-1 | 0.454 | away | 0.2058 | 0.1681 |
| 09-14 22:40 | CWS @ CLE | 7-3 | 0.575 | away | 0.3302 | 0.2862 |
| 09-13 23:20 | SD @ SF | 6-4 | 0.464 | away | 0.2155 | 0.2500 |
| 09-13 20:10 | TEX @ AZ | 7-6 | 0.578 | away | 0.3342 | 0.2970 |
| 09-13 20:05 | SEA @ ATH | 7-8 | 0.481 | home | 0.2695 | 0.2970 |
| 09-13 19:05 | KC @ BOS | 1-4 | 0.617 | home | 0.1469 | 0.1892 |
| 09-13 18:20 | PIT @ CHC | 4-3 | 0.588 | away | 0.3454 | 0.2970 |
| 09-13 18:15 | CWS @ STL | 1-3 | 0.553 | home | 0.1997 | 0.2809 |
| 09-13 18:10 | CLE @ MIN | 9-2 | 0.503 | away | 0.2534 | 0.2862 |
| 09-13 18:10 | CIN @ MIL | 4-3 | 0.642 | away | 0.4128 | 0.3080 |
| 09-13 17:40 | HOU @ TB | 4-14 | 0.573 | home | 0.1825 | 0.1722 |
| 09-13 17:40 | LAD @ MIA | 4-6 | 0.455 | home | 0.2971 | 0.3080 |
| 09-13 17:37 | BAL @ TOR | 1-8 | 0.573 | home | 0.1826 | 0.2070 |
| 09-13 17:35 | LAA @ WSH | 5-6 | 0.574 | home | 0.1813 | 0.2401 |
| 09-13 17:35 | PHI @ ATL | 9-4 | 0.525 | away | 0.2759 | 0.2756 |
| 09-13 17:35 | NYM @ NYY | 0-2 | 0.608 | home | 0.1538 | 0.2500 |
| 09-13 16:10 | COL @ DET | 1-8 | 0.632 | home | 0.1353 | 0.1722 |
| 09-13 01:40 | SEA @ ATH | 19-1 | 0.481 | away | 0.2313 | 0.1806 |
| 09-13 00:10 | TEX @ AZ | 6-2 | 0.578 | away | 0.3342 | 0.2756 |
| 09-12 23:15 | PHI @ ATL | 2-12 | 0.525 | home | 0.2253 | 0.2704 |
| 09-12 23:15 | CWS @ STL | 6-5 | 0.550 | away | 0.3026 | 0.2601 |
| 09-12 23:10 | CIN @ MIL | 9-13 | 0.642 | home | 0.1278 | 0.1560 |
| 09-12 22:10 | HOU @ TB | 2-3 | 0.573 | home | 0.1825 | 0.1892 |
| 09-12 20:10 | KC @ BOS | 1-5 | 0.617 | home | 0.1469 | 0.1482 |
| 09-12 20:10 | CLE @ MIN | 3-4 | 0.503 | home | 0.2466 | 0.2550 |
| 09-12 20:10 | LAD @ MIA | 3-4 | 0.455 | home | 0.2971 | 0.4556 |
| 09-12 20:05 | LAA @ WSH | 5-6 | 0.574 | home | 0.1813 | 0.2162 |
| 09-12 20:05 | SD @ SF | 7-6 | 0.464 | away | 0.2155 | 0.2500 |
| 09-12 19:07 | BAL @ TOR | 3-7 | 0.573 | home | 0.1826 | 0.1980 |
| 09-12 18:20 | PIT @ CHC | 3-4 | 0.586 | home | 0.1714 | 0.2352 |
| 09-12 17:35 | NYM @ NYY | 12-2 | 0.606 | away | 0.3675 | 0.2500 |
| 09-12 17:10 | COL @ DET | 7-11 | 0.630 | home | 0.1365 | 0.2070 |
| 09-12 02:15 | SD @ SF | 7-5 | 0.464 | away | 0.2155 | 0.2500 |
| 09-12 01:40 | SEA @ ATH | 5-6 | 0.483 | home | 0.2668 | 0.3422 |
| 09-12 01:40 | TEX @ AZ | 1-9 | 0.578 | home | 0.1777 | 0.2601 |
| 09-12 00:15 | CWS @ STL | 3-7 | 0.547 | home | 0.2051 | 0.2450 |
| 09-12 00:10 | CLE @ MIN | 5-2 | 0.501 | away | 0.2506 | 0.2550 |
| 09-11 23:45 | CIN @ MIL | 0-20 | 0.638 | home | 0.1308 | 0.1482 |
| 09-11 23:15 | PHI @ ATL | 5-6 | 0.525 | home | 0.2259 | 0.1521 |
| 09-11 23:10 | KC @ BOS | 3-2 | 0.623 | away | 0.3884 | 0.3906 |
| 09-11 23:10 | HOU @ TB | 1-3 | 0.573 | home | 0.1820 | 0.1482 |
| 09-11 23:10 | LAD @ MIA | 6-2 | 0.460 | away | 0.2117 | 0.1332 |
| 09-11 23:07 | BAL @ TOR | 7-4 | 0.575 | away | 0.3311 | 0.2970 |
| 09-11 23:05 | NYM @ NYY | 4-6 | 0.608 | home | 0.1541 | 0.2500 |
| 09-11 22:45 | LAA @ WSH | 3-4 | 0.578 | home | 0.1781 | 0.1980 |
| 09-11 22:40 | COL @ DET | 2-6 | 0.629 | home | 0.1377 | 0.1806 |
| 09-11 18:20 | PIT @ CHC | 2-12 | 0.591 | home | 0.1670 | 0.2162 |
| 09-10 23:40 | PIT @ CWS | 2-0 | 0.539 | away | 0.2905 | 0.2652 |
| 09-10 23:05 | COL @ NYY | 3-10 | 0.697 | home | 0.0917 | 0.0992 |
| 09-10 20:10 | TEX @ SEA | 3-4 | 0.543 | home | 0.2087 | 0.2070 |
| 09-10 17:05 | HOU @ PHI | 2-1 | 0.593 | away | 0.3519 | 0.3782 |
| 09-10 16:15 | TB @ ATL | 1-3 | 0.544 | home | 0.2075 | 0.2352 |
| 09-10 02:10 | CIN @ LAD | 1-14 | 0.616 | home | 0.1475 | 0.0992 |
| 09-09 23:40 | AZ @ KC | 2-5 | 0.492 | home | 0.2583 | 0.2809 |
| 09-09 23:40 | PIT @ CWS | 4-2 | 0.539 | away | 0.2905 | 0.2970 |
| 09-09 23:40 | CHC @ MIL | 6-8 | 0.583 | home | 0.1737 | 0.2070 |
| 09-09 23:15 | TB @ ATL | 7-2 | 0.544 | away | 0.2965 | 0.2756 |
| 09-09 23:05 | COL @ NYY | 1-6 | 0.697 | home | 0.0917 | 0.1332 |
| 09-09 22:45 | LAA @ BOS | 6-4 | 0.683 | away | 0.4668 | 0.3906 |
| 09-09 22:40 | HOU @ PHI | 7-11 | 0.593 | home | 0.1655 | 0.1640 |
| 09-09 22:40 | NYM @ MIA | 15-14 | 0.546 | away | 0.2984 | 0.2704 |
| 09-09 22:35 | CLE @ BAL | 5-9 | 0.528 | home | 0.2223 | 0.2500 |
| 09-09 20:10 | WSH @ SD | 2-9 | 0.618 | home | 0.1463 | 0.1560 |
| 09-09 20:10 | TEX @ SEA | 2-3 | 0.543 | home | 0.2087 | 0.1980 |
| 09-09 19:45 | STL @ SF | 6-7 | 0.496 | home | 0.2537 | 0.2916 |
| 09-09 19:05 | TOR @ ATH | 0-2 | 0.445 | home | 0.3078 | 0.3844 |
| 09-09 17:10 | MIN @ DET | 2-7 | 0.557 | home | 0.1966 | 0.2256 |
| 09-09 02:10 | CIN @ LAD | 2-3 | 0.614 | home | 0.1489 | 0.1056 |
| 09-09 01:45 | STL @ SF | 1-2 | 0.496 | home | 0.2537 | 0.2352 |
| 09-09 01:40 | WSH @ SD | 4-5 | 0.616 | home | 0.1478 | 0.1521 |
| 09-09 01:40 | TEX @ SEA | 10-5 | 0.543 | away | 0.2951 | 0.2970 |
| 09-09 01:40 | TOR @ ATH | 4-2 | 0.445 | away | 0.1982 | 0.1806 |
| 09-08 23:40 | AZ @ KC | 5-3 | 0.497 | away | 0.2475 | 0.2352 |
| 09-08 23:40 | PIT @ CWS | 9-3 | 0.536 | away | 0.2878 | 0.3080 |
| 09-08 23:40 | CHC @ MIL | 3-4 | 0.579 | home | 0.1777 | 0.1722 |
| 09-08 23:15 | TB @ ATL | 7-1 | 0.547 | away | 0.2992 | 0.2704 |
| 09-08 23:05 | COL @ NYY | 3-5 | 0.697 | home | 0.0917 | 0.0992 |
| 09-08 22:45 | LAA @ BOS | 6-1 | 0.680 | away | 0.4624 | 0.3422 |
| 09-08 22:40 | MIN @ DET | 3-2 | 0.549 | away | 0.3013 | 0.2809 |
| 09-08 22:40 | HOU @ PHI | 6-5 | 0.591 | away | 0.3490 | 0.2970 |
| 09-08 22:40 | NYM @ MIA | 7-5 | 0.553 | away | 0.3054 | 0.2652 |
| 09-08 22:35 | CLE @ BAL | 9-5 | 0.523 | away | 0.2736 | 0.2550 |
| 09-08 02:05 | TOR @ ATH | 5-6 | 0.444 | home | 0.3093 | 0.4096 |
| 09-08 01:10 | CIN @ LAD | 3-6 | 0.618 | home | 0.1458 | 0.1482 |
| 09-08 00:10 | STL @ SF | 4-5 | 0.498 | home | 0.2519 | 0.2304 |
| 09-07 21:10 | WSH @ SD | 2-3 | 0.614 | home | 0.1492 | 0.1640 |
| 09-07 19:10 | MIN @ DET | 4-5 | 0.551 | home | 0.2013 | 0.2070 |
| 09-07 18:10 | AZ @ KC | 5-4 | 0.504 | away | 0.2536 | 0.2500 |
| 09-07 18:10 | CHC @ MIL | 3-4 | 0.585 | home | 0.1726 | 0.2070 |
| 09-07 17:35 | LAA @ BOS | 2-5 | 0.676 | home | 0.1048 | 0.1560 |
| 09-07 17:35 | CLE @ BAL | 4-6 | 0.528 | home | 0.2230 | 0.2209 |
| 09-07 17:10 | NYM @ MIA | 9-4 | 0.555 | away | 0.3079 | 0.2862 |
| 09-07 17:05 | ATL @ PHI | 0-1 | 0.558 | home | 0.1955 | 0.1681 |
| 09-07 02:10 | WSH @ LAD | 5-7 | 0.642 | home | 0.1281 | 0.1122 |
| 09-06 22:20 | MIN @ CWS | 1-10 | 0.557 | home | 0.1964 | 0.2070 |
| 09-06 20:10 | ATH @ SEA | 0-2 | 0.615 | home | 0.1486 | 0.1260 |
| 09-06 20:10 | NYY @ SD | 3-4 | 0.511 | home | 0.2395 | 0.2500 |
| 09-06 19:10 | STL @ COL | 10-8 | 0.443 | away | 0.1966 | 0.2209 |
| 09-06 18:35 | TB @ TEX | 6-8 | 0.496 | home | 0.2536 | 0.2756 |
| 09-06 18:10 | AZ @ HOU | 3-2 | 0.541 | away | 0.2925 | 0.2756 |
| 09-06 18:10 | TOR @ KC | 1-6 | 0.499 | home | 0.2508 | 0.2209 |
| 09-06 17:40 | DET @ CLE | 2-3 | 0.571 | home | 0.1839 | 0.1722 |
| 09-06 17:40 | SF @ NYM | 2-4 | 0.577 | home | 0.1788 | 0.2500 |
| 09-06 17:40 | CHC @ MIA | 3-10 | 0.497 | home | 0.2525 | 0.2970 |
| 09-06 17:35 | BOS @ BAL | 3-1 | 0.494 | away | 0.2442 | 0.2401 |
| 09-06 17:35 | LAA @ PIT | 0-1 | 0.620 | home | 0.1443 | 0.1190 |
| 09-06 17:10 | ATL @ PHI | 5-4 | 0.564 | away | 0.3184 | 0.2450 |
| 09-06 16:10 | MIL @ CIN | 8-12 | 0.446 | home | 0.3068 | 0.3080 |
| 09-06 01:40 | ATH @ SEA | 6-2 | 0.621 | away | 0.3859 | 0.4225 |
| 09-06 01:10 | WSH @ LAD | 5-6 | 0.640 | home | 0.1296 | 0.0729 |
| 09-06 00:10 | STL @ COL | 7-10 | 0.441 | home | 0.3123 | 0.2916 |
| 09-05 23:15 | AZ @ HOU | 4-3 | 0.541 | away | 0.2925 | 0.2601 |
| 09-05 23:15 | NYY @ SD | 5-1 | 0.511 | away | 0.2607 | 0.2256 |
| 09-05 23:10 | TOR @ KC | 4-3 | 0.496 | away | 0.2464 | 0.2756 |
| 09-05 23:10 | MIN @ CWS | 6-4 | 0.557 | away | 0.3100 | 0.2862 |
| 09-05 23:05 | BOS @ BAL | 5-0 | 0.500 | away | 0.2500 | 0.2209 |
| 09-05 23:05 | TB @ TEX | 6-3 | 0.490 | away | 0.2406 | 0.2304 |
| 09-05 22:40 | LAA @ PIT | 6-1 | 0.620 | away | 0.3845 | 0.4225 |
| 09-05 22:40 | MIL @ CIN | 3-5 | 0.443 | home | 0.3100 | 0.3844 |
| 09-05 22:10 | DET @ CLE | 6-0 | 0.566 | away | 0.3208 | 0.3192 |
| 09-05 22:05 | ATL @ PHI | 2-4 | 0.564 | home | 0.1898 | 0.1892 |
| 09-05 20:10 | SF @ NYM | 9-5 | 0.577 | away | 0.3330 | 0.2756 |
| 09-05 20:10 | CHC @ MIA | 6-5 | 0.503 | away | 0.2532 | 0.2070 |
| 09-05 02:10 | WSH @ LAD | 3-5 | 0.643 | home | 0.1273 | 0.0650 |
| 09-05 02:10 | ATH @ SEA | 7-6 | 0.621 | away | 0.3859 | 0.4556 |
| 09-05 01:40 | NYY @ SD | 2-3 | 0.513 | home | 0.2373 | 0.2704 |
| 09-05 00:40 | STL @ COL | 7-6 | 0.445 | away | 0.1978 | 0.2070 |
| 09-05 00:10 | AZ @ HOU | 1-3 | 0.536 | home | 0.2155 | 0.1980 |
| 09-05 00:10 | TOR @ KC | 9-2 | 0.506 | away | 0.2556 | 0.2916 |
| 09-05 00:05 | TB @ TEX | 7-6 | 0.487 | away | 0.2372 | 0.2070 |
| 09-04 23:40 | MIN @ CWS | 1-4 | 0.559 | home | 0.1948 | 0.2116 |
| 09-04 23:15 | DET @ CLE | 3-4 | 0.575 | home | 0.1803 | 0.2162 |
| 09-04 23:10 | SF @ NYM | 6-10 | 0.575 | home | 0.1810 | 0.2304 |
| 09-04 23:10 | CHC @ MIA | 6-1 | 0.497 | away | 0.2473 | 0.2209 |
| 09-04 23:05 | BOS @ BAL | 1-0 | 0.500 | away | 0.2500 | 0.2304 |
| 09-04 22:45 | LAA @ PIT | 0-1 | 0.619 | home | 0.1453 | 0.1482 |
| 09-04 22:40 | ATL @ PHI | 5-2 | 0.564 | away | 0.3184 | 0.2809 |
| 09-04 22:10 | MIL @ CIN | 10-7 | 0.446 | away | 0.1990 | 0.1980 |
| 09-04 18:10 | DET @ CLE | 6-7 | 0.575 | home | 0.1803 | 0.2162 |
| 09-04 02:10 | STL @ LAD | 2-3 | 0.619 | home | 0.1451 | 0.0702 |
| 09-04 01:40 | ATH @ SEA | 7-4 | 0.616 | away | 0.3795 | 0.4160 |
| 09-04 00:05 | TB @ TEX | 0-6 | 0.491 | home | 0.2594 | 0.2704 |
| 09-03 23:40 | MIA @ KC | 3-7 | 0.529 | home | 0.2217 | 0.2809 |
| 09-03 23:15 | BOS @ BAL | 6-5 | 0.500 | away | 0.2497 | 0.2162 |
| 09-03 23:15 | MIL @ CHC | 1-2 | 0.506 | home | 0.2436 | 0.2401 |
| 09-03 18:10 | CWS @ HOU | 2-6 | 0.570 | home | 0.1846 | 0.1892 |
| 09-03 17:10 | TOR @ CLE | 6-3 | 0.532 | away | 0.2836 | 0.2809 |
| 09-03 16:35 | SF @ PIT | 2-5 | 0.579 | home | 0.1777 | 0.1722 |
| 09-03 02:10 | STL @ LAD | 8-6 | 0.619 | away | 0.3833 | 0.4290 |
| 09-03 01:38 | NYY @ LAA | 6-3 | 0.397 | away | 0.1578 | 0.1681 |
| 09-03 00:10 | CWS @ HOU | 0-2 | 0.566 | home | 0.1888 | 0.2162 |
| 09-02 23:40 | DET @ MIN | 11-6 | 0.528 | away | 0.2786 | 0.2970 |
| 09-02 23:40 | MIA @ KC | 9-6 | 0.526 | away | 0.2770 | 0.2401 |
| 09-02 23:40 | MIL @ CHC | 9-5 | 0.501 | away | 0.2507 | 0.2070 |
| 09-02 22:40 | SF @ PIT | 5-4 | 0.582 | away | 0.3388 | 0.3192 |
| 09-02 22:40 | NYM @ TB | 10-4 | 0.609 | away | 0.3708 | 0.3306 |
| 09-02 22:40 | TOR @ CLE | 11-0 | 0.532 | away | 0.2836 | 0.2809 |
| 09-02 20:10 | SEA @ BOS | 8-3 | 0.595 | away | 0.3543 | 0.2970 |
| 09-02 19:40 | PHI @ AZ | 0-1 | 0.502 | home | 0.2479 | 0.2652 |
| 09-02 19:10 | BAL @ COL | 5-6 | 0.429 | home | 0.3258 | 0.2970 |
| 09-02 18:35 | ATH @ TEX | 9-2 | 0.611 | away | 0.3738 | 0.3540 |
| 09-02 17:05 | ATL @ WSH | 9-0 | 0.453 | away | 0.2049 | 0.1980 |
| 09-02 16:40 | SD @ CIN | 3-7 | 0.500 | home | 0.2502 | 0.2756 |
| 09-02 02:10 | STL @ LAD | 13-8 | 0.619 | away | 0.3833 | 0.3306 |
| 09-02 01:40 | PHI @ AZ | 7-1 | 0.502 | away | 0.2521 | 0.2070 |
| 09-02 01:38 | NYY @ LAA | 7-3 | 0.397 | away | 0.1578 | 0.1521 |
| 09-02 00:40 | BAL @ COL | 2-4 | 0.429 | home | 0.3258 | 0.3025 |
| 09-02 00:10 | CWS @ HOU | 5-1 | 0.566 | away | 0.3198 | 0.2500 |
| 09-02 00:05 | ATH @ TEX | 5-8 | 0.611 | home | 0.1510 | 0.1406 |
| 09-01 23:40 | DET @ MIN | 2-15 | 0.528 | home | 0.2230 | 0.2550 |
| 09-01 23:40 | MIA @ KC | 6-3 | 0.526 | away | 0.2770 | 0.2401 |
| 09-01 23:40 | MIL @ CHC | 9-4 | 0.504 | away | 0.2542 | 0.2652 |
| 09-01 22:45 | SEA @ BOS | 9-6 | 0.595 | away | 0.3543 | 0.3080 |
| 09-01 22:45 | ATL @ WSH | 5-9 | 0.453 | home | 0.2997 | 0.3906 |
| 09-01 22:40 | SD @ CIN | 3-4 | 0.496 | home | 0.2536 | 0.2704 |
| 09-01 22:40 | SF @ PIT | 12-13 | 0.582 | home | 0.1746 | 0.1640 |
| 09-01 22:40 | NYM @ TB | 2-6 | 0.609 | home | 0.1530 | 0.2025 |
| 09-01 22:40 | TOR @ CLE | 1-6 | 0.532 | home | 0.2186 | 0.1482 |
| 09-01 01:40 | PHI @ AZ | 2-1 | 0.510 | away | 0.2599 | 0.2450 |
| 09-01 01:38 | NYY @ LAA | 1-10 | 0.407 | home | 0.3520 | 0.4096 |
| 09-01 00:40 | BAL @ COL | 2-1 | 0.436 | away | 0.1904 | 0.2116 |
| 09-01 00:10 | CWS @ HOU | 3-6 | 0.560 | home | 0.1938 | 0.2209 |
| 09-01 00:05 | ATH @ TEX | 1-8 | 0.605 | home | 0.1563 | 0.0992 |
| 08-31 23:40 | DET @ MIN | 1-11 | 0.522 | home | 0.2282 | 0.2162 |
| 08-31 23:40 | MIL @ CHC | 3-17 | 0.502 | home | 0.2475 | 0.2550 |
| 08-31 22:45 | SEA @ BOS | 8-9 | 0.598 | home | 0.1618 | 0.1892 |
| 08-31 22:45 | MIA @ WSH | 3-6 | 0.507 | home | 0.2433 | 0.2652 |
| 08-31 22:40 | SD @ CIN | 5-0 | 0.494 | away | 0.2438 | 0.2070 |
| 08-31 22:40 | NYM @ TB | 3-2 | 0.604 | away | 0.3643 | 0.3192 |
| 08-31 22:05 | SF @ ATL | 7-3 | 0.638 | away | 0.4073 | — |
| 08-30 23:20 | CIN @ CHC | 7-5 | 0.602 | away | 0.3622 | 0.2970 |
| 08-30 20:07 | PHI @ LAA | 5-2 | 0.408 | away | 0.1664 | 0.1332 |
| 08-30 20:05 | BAL @ ATH | 8-5 | 0.475 | away | 0.2253 | 0.1892 |
| 08-30 19:10 | HOU @ NYM | 6-3 | 0.519 | away | 0.2690 | 0.2809 |
| 08-30 18:15 | PIT @ STL | 5-4 | 0.552 | away | 0.3044 | 0.2550 |
| 08-30 18:10 | CWS @ MIN | 1-5 | 0.529 | home | 0.2216 | 0.2401 |
| 08-30 18:10 | TEX @ MIL | 7-4 | 0.636 | away | 0.4049 | 0.3844 |
| 08-30 17:40 | KC @ CLE | 1-11 | 0.577 | home | 0.1787 | 0.1640 |
| 08-30 17:40 | LAD @ DET | 6-1 | 0.464 | away | 0.2152 | 0.2025 |
| 08-30 17:40 | SD @ TB | 4-5 | 0.545 | home | 0.2069 | 0.1560 |
| 08-30 17:37 | SEA @ TOR | 0-7 | 0.552 | home | 0.2007 | 0.2601 |
| 08-30 17:35 | COL @ ATL | 2-3 | 0.681 | home | 0.1018 | 0.1260 |
| 08-30 17:35 | BOS @ NYY | 1-16 | 0.545 | home | 0.2074 | 0.2500 |
| 08-30 16:15 | MIA @ WSH | 6-2 | 0.495 | away | 0.2452 | 0.2304 |
| 08-30 02:07 | PHI @ LAA | 4-2 | 0.408 | away | 0.1664 | 0.0961 |
| 08-30 02:05 | AZ @ SF | 2-7 | 0.470 | home | 0.2813 | 0.2652 |
| 08-30 02:05 | BAL @ ATH | 5-3 | 0.475 | away | 0.2253 | 0.1806 |
| 08-29 23:15 | BOS @ NYY | 2-9 | 0.548 | home | 0.2043 | 0.1980 |
| 08-29 23:15 | TEX @ MIL | 3-5 | 0.634 | home | 0.1340 | 0.1722 |
| 08-29 20:10 | KC @ CLE | 8-3 | 0.581 | away | 0.3371 | 0.3192 |
| 08-29 20:10 | HOU @ NYM | 2-6 | 0.524 | home | 0.2261 | 0.2070 |
| 08-29 20:10 | SD @ TB | 6-7 | 0.545 | home | 0.2069 | 0.2162 |
| 08-29 20:10 | COL @ ATL | 1-2 | 0.678 | home | 0.1034 | 0.1260 |
| 08-29 20:05 | AZ @ SF | 7-1 | 0.470 | away | 0.2205 | 0.2352 |
| 08-29 20:05 | MIA @ WSH | 4-5 | 0.495 | home | 0.2548 | 0.2352 |
| 08-29 19:07 | SEA @ TOR | 3-4 | 0.555 | home | 0.1978 | 0.2450 |
| 08-29 18:20 | CIN @ CHC | 5-17 | 0.609 | home | 0.1533 | 0.1225 |
| 08-29 18:15 | PIT @ STL | 6-2 | 0.552 | away | 0.3044 | 0.2916 |
| 08-29 18:10 | CWS @ MIN | 3-2 | 0.529 | away | 0.2802 | 0.2970 |
| 08-29 17:10 | LAD @ DET | 1-2 | 0.461 | home | 0.2903 | 0.3721 |
| 08-29 17:05 | BOS @ NYY | 6-0 | 0.548 | away | 0.3003 | 0.3080 |
| 08-29 02:15 | AZ @ SF | 10-6 | 0.470 | away | 0.2205 | 0.2401 |
Raw data: /api/ledger · /api/metrics · /api/today. Every number on this page is reproducible from the raw ledger. Predictions are append-only; frozen_at precedes game start by construction.