predictions layer · decision layer (DIP) →
Model Brier: — · Market Brier: — · 0 graded predictions
Calibrated probabilities, frozen before first pitch, graded in public. Probabilities, never picks. Market benchmark: Polymarket.
| Start (UTC) | Game | Model P(home) | Market @ freeze | Polymarket now | Frozen at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 22:40 | MIN @ CLE | 0.588 | — | 0.455 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:05 | PIT @ NYY | 0.587 | — | 0.525 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:07 | TB @ TOR | 0.526 | — | 0.595 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:10 | BAL @ BOS | 0.577 | — | 0.585 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:10 | LAD @ PHI | 0.519 | — | 0.565 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:15 | SD @ ATL | 0.556 | — | 0.545 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:40 | SF @ KC | 0.532 | — | 0.525 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-20 23:40 | NYM @ MIL | 0.655 | — | 0.655 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 00:05 | DET @ CHC | 0.593 | — | 0.515 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 00:05 | CWS @ TEX | 0.571 | — | 0.615 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 00:10 | MIA @ HOU | 0.530 | — | 0.525 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 00:40 | WSH @ COL | 0.468 | — | 0.465 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 01:40 | ATH @ AZ | 0.601 | — | 0.575 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 01:40 | CIN @ SEA | 0.575 | — | 0.575 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 02:10 | STL @ LAA | 0.466 | — | 0.505 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 22:40 | MIN @ CLE | 0.588 | — | 0.535 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 22:40 | LAD @ PHI | 0.519 | — | 0.555 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 23:05 | PIT @ NYY | 0.587 | — | 0.525 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 23:07 | TB @ TOR | 0.526 | — | 0.505 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 23:10 | BAL @ BOS | 0.577 | — | 0.565 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 23:15 | SD @ ATL | 0.556 | — | 0.595 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 23:40 | SF @ KC | 0.532 | — | 0.495 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-21 23:40 | NYM @ MIL | 0.655 | — | 0.595 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 00:05 | DET @ CHC | 0.593 | — | 0.525 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 00:05 | CWS @ TEX | 0.571 | — | 0.555 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 00:10 | MIA @ HOU | 0.530 | — | 0.530 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 00:40 | WSH @ COL | 0.468 | — | 0.495 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 01:38 | STL @ LAA | 0.466 | — | 0.485 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 01:40 | ATH @ AZ | 0.601 | — | 0.565 | 07-20 12:26 |
| 07-22 01:40 | CIN @ SEA | 0.575 | — | 0.545 | 07-20 12:26 |
137 graded · model Brier 0.1422 vs Polymarket 0.1521 · model closer on 71/137 · paper: 1 trades, 0 wins, $-100.00 flat / $-490.62 ¼-Kelly
Up windows (74): model 0.1614 vs PM 0.1762 · Down windows (63): model 0.1196 vs PM 0.1238
| Sym | Window | Spot lead | Model P(Up) | PM P(Up) | Result | Closer | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1784568900 | +0.013% | 0.555 | 0.465 | pending | — | |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1784568900 | +0.063% | 0.739 | 0.695 | pending | — | |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1784568900 | +0.092% | 0.778 | 0.815 | pending | — | |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1784568900 | +0.008% | 0.535 | 0.525 | pending | — | |
| XRP | xrp-updown-15m-1784567700 | -0.099% | 0.185 | 0.100 | Down | polymarket | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1784568300 | +0.065% | 0.741 | 0.825 | Up | polymarket | — |
| SOL | sol-updown-15m-1784567700 | +0.013% | 0.549 | 0.475 | Down | polymarket | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1784568300 | +0.074% | 0.717 | 0.785 | Up | polymarket | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-15m-1784567700 | +0.075% | 0.720 | 0.785 | Up | polymarket | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-15m-1784567700 | +0.031% | 0.621 | 0.675 | Up | polymarket | — |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1784568300 | +0.065% | 0.733 | 0.775 | Up | polymarket | — |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1784568300 | +0.081% | 0.769 | 0.745 | Up | model | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1784568000 | +0.072% | 0.716 | 0.765 | Down | model | — |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1784568000 | -0.054% | 0.304 | 0.255 | Down | polymarket | — |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1784568000 | +0.013% | 0.550 | 0.510 | Down | polymarket | — |
| BTC | btc-updown-5m-1784567700 | -0.063% | 0.272 | 0.205 | Down | polymarket | — |
| XRP | xrp-updown-5m-1784567700 | -0.135% | 0.114 | 0.135 | Down | model | — |
| SOL | sol-updown-5m-1784567700 | -0.026% | 0.407 | 0.405 | Up | model | — |
| ETH | eth-updown-5m-1784567700 | -0.062% | 0.325 | 0.325 | Up | tie | — |
| XRP | xrp-updown-15m-1784566800 | +0.018% | 0.567 | 0.490 | Down | polymarket | — |
Paper trades fire only when |model − market| ≥ 0.10 AND the model's edge still clears 0.10 against the actual order-book ask — the price a real buy would pay. $100 hypothetical stake each. Zero real orders.
| Start (UTC) | Game | Score | Model P(home) | Winner | Brier | Market Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No graded games yet — first grades land the morning after tonight's slate. | ||||||
Raw data: /api/ledger · /api/metrics · /api/today. Every number on this page is reproducible from the raw ledger. Predictions are append-only; frozen_at precedes game start by construction.