Trading trial CLOSED 2026-08-01 — no harvestable edge. A 15k-match sharp-market backtest and the clean live record both came back negative: this model does not beat the market. The combos and "model likes" flags below are kept for interest and calibration only — not trade signals, and no real money is ever placed.
tennis ledger: 1061 graded · model Brier 0.2271 vs market 0.2095 · model closer on 501/1061
The MODEL P column is our Glicko-2 rating engine (trained on 18.8k matches, holdout Brier 0.228). "Divergence" flags ≥7-point model-vs-market disagreements — historically these were the model's worst calls, not value. Shown for transparency, not action. Refreshes every 2 min.
| P(hit) | Fair payout | Legs |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 2.09x | Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c Caldas da Rainha: Lisa Pigato vs Jeline Vandromme -> Jeline Vandromme — 75c Singapore Open, Qualification: Nika Radisic vs Viktoria Morvayova -> Viktoria Morvayova — 78c |
| 46.0% | 2.17x | Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c Korea Open, Qualification: Carol Zhao vs Yexin Ma -> Yexin Ma — 72c Singapore Open, Qualification: Nika Radisic vs Viktoria Morvayova -> Viktoria Morvayova — 78c |
| 44.5% | 2.24x | Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c Korea Open, Qualification: Carol Zhao vs Yexin Ma -> Yexin Ma — 72c Caldas da Rainha: Lisa Pigato vs Jeline Vandromme -> Jeline Vandromme — 75c |
| 44.4% | 2.25x | Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c Korea Open, Qualification: En-Shuo Liang vs Sara Saito -> En-Shuo Liang — 70c Singapore Open, Qualification: Nika Radisic vs Viktoria Morvayova -> Viktoria Morvayova — 78c |
| 43.0% | 2.33x | Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c Korea Open, Qualification: En-Shuo Liang vs Sara Saito -> En-Shuo Liang — 70c Caldas da Rainha: Lisa Pigato vs Jeline Vandromme -> Jeline Vandromme — 75c |
| P(hit) | Fair payout | Legs |
|---|---|---|
| 29.2% | 3.42x | Korea Open, Qualification: Xinxin Yao vs Priscilla Hon -> Priscilla Hon — 60c Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c M15 Melilla: Carles Cordoba vs Daniele Rapagnetta -> Daniele Rapagnetta — 60c |
| 28.2% | 3.54x | Korea Open, Qualification: Xinxin Yao vs Priscilla Hon -> Priscilla Hon — 60c Phan Thiet 4: Moise Kouame vs Rodrigo Pacheco -> Moise Kouame — 57c Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c |
| 28.2% | 3.54x | Phan Thiet 4: Moise Kouame vs Rodrigo Pacheco -> Moise Kouame — 57c Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c M15 Melilla: Carles Cordoba vs Daniele Rapagnetta -> Daniele Rapagnetta — 60c |
| 27.7% | 3.61x | Phan Thiet 4: Ilia Simakin vs Hunter Heck -> Hunter Heck — 56c Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c M15 Melilla: Carles Cordoba vs Daniele Rapagnetta -> Daniele Rapagnetta — 60c |
| 27.7% | 3.61x | Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri -> Mei Yamaguchi — 82c Szczecin: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Trungelliti -> Marco Trungelliti — 56c M15 Melilla: Carles Cordoba vs Daniele Rapagnetta -> Daniele Rapagnetta — 60c |
| Match | Side A | Side B | Model P(A) | Vol 24h | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 4: Ilia Simakin vs Hunter Heck | Ilia Simakin 44c | Hunter Heck 56c | — | $127,945 | |
| Singapore Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Anastasia Kulikova | Jiaqi Wang 8c | Anastasia Kulikova 92c | — | $110,384 | |
| Korea Open, Qualification: Haruka Kaji vs Darya Astakhova | Haruka Kaji 38c | Darya Astakhova 62c | — | $104,190 | |
| Korea Open, Qualification: Mai Hontama vs Eun-Hye Lee | Mai Hontama 13c | Eun-Hye Lee 87c | — | $51,930 | |
| Singapore Open, Qualification: Nao Hibino vs Kai Ning Chanya Ng | Nao Hibino 98c | Kai Ning Chanya Ng 2c | — | $24,377 | |
| Korea Open, Qualification: Xinxin Yao vs Priscilla Hon | Xinxin Yao 40c | Priscilla Hon 60c | — | $19,432 | |
| Phan Thiet 4: Moise Kouame vs Rodrigo Pacheco | Moise Kouame 57c | Rodrigo Pacheco 42c | — | $18,623 | |
| Korea Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Bo-Young Jeong | Tamara Zidansek 50c | Bo-Young Jeong 50c | — | $16,388 | |
| Singapore Open, Qualification: Aoi Ito vs Sofya Lansere | Aoi Ito 64c | Sofya Lansere 36c | — | $12,850 | |
| W35 Kyoto: Jia-Jing Lu vs Ena Shibahara | Jia-Jing Lu 92c | Ena Shibahara 8c | — | $11,086 | |
| Singapore Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Ulrikke Eikeri | Mei Yamaguchi 82c | Ulrikke Eikeri 18c | — | $6,619 | |
| M15 Hurghada: Paul Jubb vs Saveliy Ivanov | Paul Jubb 94c | Saveliy Ivanov 6c | — | $5,823 | |
| Singapore Open, Qualification: Joanna Garland vs Ellen Perez | Joanna Garland 92c | Ellen Perez 8c | — | $5,598 | |
| Korea Open, Qualification: Carol Zhao vs Yexin Ma | Carol Zhao 28c | Yexin Ma 72c | 0.54 | $4,328 | model likes Carol Zhao (+0.26) |
| M15 Melilla: Pietro Marino vs Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez | Pietro Marino 50c | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez 50c | — | $4,242 | |
| Korea Open, Qualification: En-Shuo Liang vs Sara Saito | En-Shuo Liang 70c | Sara Saito 30c | — | $4,213 | |
| W35 Hurghada: Ekaterina Tupitsyna vs Katarina Kuzmova | Ekaterina Tupitsyna 46c | Katarina Kuzmova 55c | — | $3,601 | |
| Szczecin: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Trungelliti | Thiago Monteiro 44c | Marco Trungelliti 56c | 0.45 | $3,127 | |
| Caldas da Rainha: Lisa Pigato vs Jeline Vandromme | Lisa Pigato 25c | Jeline Vandromme 75c | — | $2,625 | |
| Singapore Open, Qualification: Nika Radisic vs Viktoria Morvayova | Nika Radisic 22c | Viktoria Morvayova 78c | — | $2,528 |
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